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Peter Blackett's Economic Update - December 2009
Economic conditions and investment markets - December 2009
Australian share values continued to improve with the ASX 200 Index (as measured by the S&P/ASX 200 index) rising by 3.6% over the month of December 2009. Again the annual return has been positive, with a gain of 31.15% over the 12 months to the end of December 2009. During the October to December quarter, the Australian share market rose by 2.68%.
In world markets, December 2009 saw a gain of 1.7% with a rise over the October to December 2009 quarter of 3.66%. The annual return for the 12 months to the end of December 2009 shows a positive return of 25.72% (as measured by the MSCI ex Aus World Index).
Property markets are again in positive territory this month with a rise of 2.02%. The quarter from October to December 2009 has seen a fall of 6.38% with the annual position remaining at an overall loss of around 0.24% (as measured by the S&P/ASX 200 AREIT).
The cash rate stands at 3.75% effective from 2 December 2009, although markets are suggesting another 0.25% increase will occur when the Board of the RBA next meets on 4th February 2010.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has risen 1.3% from the September quarter 2008 to the September quarter 2009. However, the TD Securities Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge rose 2.6% to the year ended December 2009 which is the largest increase in this measure in nine months. This data adds evidence to the view that inflation has “bottomed out” and is now experiencing some “upside pressure”.
The Spot Gold price, as measured in USD per ounce, has risen 0.69% over the last 30 days (to January 15, 2010) and has risen by 38.21% over the 12 months to January 15, 2010.
In world markets, December 2009 saw a gain of 1.7% with a rise over the October to December 2009 quarter of 3.66%. The annual return for the 12 months to the end of December 2009 shows a positive return of 25.72% (as measured by the MSCI ex Aus World Index).
Property markets are again in positive territory this month with a rise of 2.02%. The quarter from October to December 2009 has seen a fall of 6.38% with the annual position remaining at an overall loss of around 0.24% (as measured by the S&P/ASX 200 AREIT).
The cash rate stands at 3.75% effective from 2 December 2009, although markets are suggesting another 0.25% increase will occur when the Board of the RBA next meets on 4th February 2010.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has risen 1.3% from the September quarter 2008 to the September quarter 2009. However, the TD Securities Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge rose 2.6% to the year ended December 2009 which is the largest increase in this measure in nine months. This data adds evidence to the view that inflation has “bottomed out” and is now experiencing some “upside pressure”.
The Spot Gold price, as measured in USD per ounce, has risen 0.69% over the last 30 days (to January 15, 2010) and has risen by 38.21% over the 12 months to January 15, 2010.